Ezra Stotland, in The Psychology Of Hope (1969), focused his analysis on the expectancies that people hold regarding their goals. From this perspective, hope is seen as related to an interaction between the subjective importance of a goal and the perceived probability of attaining it. According to his interpretation of an array of clinical and experimental research, a goal perceived to be highly important and likely to be attained stimulates selective attention, thoughts, and actions which enhance the actual likelihood of attaining that goal. This condi-tion is characteristic of hope.

Conversely, a goal which is seen as important, though remotely attainable, leads to increased anxiety and dimin-ished purposeful activity. In this case, people tend to devalue the subjective importance of the goal in an attempt to relieve the anxiety. A goal-attainment expectancy of low importance and low probability is said to be character-istic of hopelessness. Stotland argued that the psychiatric pathology is associated with hopelessness, and effective treatment must involve enhancing the patient's perception that his goals are attainable.

Following the lead from Stotland's line of reasoning, an instrument to measure hope was developed called The Hope Scale (1975), by Erickson, Post, and Paige and administered to students, psychiatric inpatients, and psychiatric out-patients. The Hope Scale featured a list of 20 normative goals common in U.S. society. Subjects rated each goal according to personal importance (I) and probability of attainment (P), and scores for mean importance and mean probability were derived. The MMPI was also administered, and scores for numerous scales were correlated. In general, correlations of P with MMPI scales suggest that low P is associated with a variety of physical, emotional, and interpersonal difficulties.

At the same time, it was found that the group with the highest I scores were psychiatric patients under 30 years of age. Stotland (1969) hypothesized that such a condition of high importance and low probability would produce high anxiety and impaired problem-solving behaviors. Erickson, et al. (1975) found support for this prediction, and suggested that their observation of decreased I scores among older psychiatric patients was indicative of an attempt to reduce anxiety. These data also seem to illus-trate Burton's assertion in the essay "Hope And Schizophrenia" in Psychoanalytic Review (1973), that the extreme apathy often characteristic of chronic schizophrenia is the result of the failure of magical thinking.

It should be noted that The Hope Scale of Erickson, Post, and Paige (1975) is theoretically based on a concept of hope that defines it according to an individual's perceived importance and probability for future attainment of particular normative goals. Within this conceptual framework, The Hope Scale lends support to Stotland's (1969) theory. However, hope is a larger topic than this. Hope is not merely sustained through wishful attitudes about the future. Hope is the product of a present-oriented and active process. From this perspective, the Erickson (1975) scale does not sufficiently assess hope in all its dimensions. Therefore, conclusions based solely on it may be inaccurate.

Another instrument to measure hope, The Hope Scale (1991) by Snyder, et al., focuses on perceptions about the coping process itself and therefore seems to address concerns raised by the existential perspective. In The (Snyder) Hope Scale, the concept has two aspects: 1) Agency (goal-directed determination) and 2) Pathways (planning of ways to meet goals). These aspects of hope are reflected and measured on eight items in the scale. The researchers cite an impressive array of validational data which seem to support this construct of hope as meaningful and this instrument as accurate. In general, this study concluded that higher levels of hope are associated with the perception of having more options in bypassing obstacles (pathways) and the where-withal to do what it takes in coping (agency). This type of hope was associated with more challenging goals, higher performance, confidence, a positive tone, and resilient mental health.